基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

冰碛扇型砂金矿床特征及其成矿初探

成生于冰碛扇内，经一定的生物、物理、化学成矿作用，以砂金形态分布而富集成矿的金矿称为冰碛扇型砂金矿床。它具有沿造山带一定标高范围成群、成带分布，沉积物为近源且半胶结，砂金呈面状分布，并以粒金、块金为主，具胶状、浑圆状、包块状构造形态，分布极不均匀等特征。冰碛扇型砂金矿床的成矿作用与河成砂金矿床有本质的区别。它的成矿作用模式是：造山带下地壳富含的活化金通过新构造运动活化的断裂运移地表，经地下流体和地表流体的迁移聚集到冰碛扇这一封闭稳定的生物、物理、化学障环境中，主要经高效聚金微生物有机胶体成矿作用沉淀、再生加大形成砂金，逐步富集成矿床。而红色磨拉石建造中风化离解的Ｆｅ，Ｍｎ物质对沉淀环境ｐＨ值起着一定的调节作用。冰碛扇型砂金矿床在我国西部造山带内广泛分布，具有一定的工业价值，是砂金矿床中一重要类型，应予以重视     

胶东“玲珑-焦家式”金矿资源潜力与找矿

“玲珑焦家式”金矿的成岩成矿,从新太古代至中生代存在着继承性的成因关系,成矿具有长期性、多源性特点,但中生代燕山早期岩浆活动是主导成矿因素。区域化探成果显示胶东金矿直接矿源岩———郭家岭花岗岩金的丰度比原始矿源岩———早前寒武纪变质沉积岩系及侵入岩系金的丰度低1/2。郭家岭花岗岩面积在2 km2以上岩体定量估计金亏损总量与胶东金矿总量预测的资源量相当,从一个侧面展现了胶东金矿资源的潜力。望儿山金矿的找矿实践展示,焦家式金矿在1 000 m以下尚有巨大潜力,整个胶东金矿产区在3 000 m以上的资源潜力应在5000 t以上。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

物探方法在江西省茅排金矿的应用效果

茅排金矿床属中－低温硫化物金矿床，矿体的分布严格受断裂构造控制．通过应用不同的物探方法来寻找控矿断裂，从而达到间接地寻找矿体分布的目的，取得了较好的效果。     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Metamorphism in Archaean greenstone belts: calculated fluid compositions and implications for gold mineralization

An inescapable consequence of the metamorphism of greenstone belt sequences is the release of a large volume of metamorphic fluid of low salinity with chemical characteristics controlled by the mineral assemblages involved in the devolatilization reactions. For mafic and ultramafic sequences, the composition of fluids released at upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions for the necessary relatively hot geotherm corresponds to those inferred for greenstone gold deposits (X_CO2= 0.2–0.3). This result follows from the calculation of mineral equilibria in the model system CaO–MgO–FeO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–CO₂, using a new, expanded, internally consistent dataset. Greenstone metamorphism cannot have involved much crustal over-thickening, because very shallow levels of greenstone belts are preserved. Such orogeny can be accounted for if compressive deformation of the crust is accompanied by thinning of the mantle lithosphere. In this case, the observed metamorphism, which was contemporaneous with deformation, is of the low-P high-T type. For this type of metamorphism, the metamorphic peak should have occurred earlier at deeper levels in the crust; i.e. the piezothermal array should be of the ‘deeper-earlier’type. However, at shallow crustal levels, the piezothermal array is likely to have been of ‘deeper-later’type, as a consequence of erosion. Thus, while the lower crust reached maximum temperatures, and partially melted to produce the observed granites, mid-crustal levels were releasing fluids prograde into shallow crustal levels that were already retrograde. We propose that these fluids are responsible for the gold mineralization. Thus, the contemporaneity of igneous activity and gold mineralization is a natural consequence of the thermal evolution, and does not mean that the mineralization has to be a consequence of igneous processes. Upward migration of metamorphic fluid, via appropriate structurally controlled pathways, will bring the fluid into contact with mineral assemblages that have equilibrated with a fluid with significantly lower X_CO2. These assemblages are therefore grossly out of equilibrium with the fluid. In the case of infiltrated metabasic rocks, intense carbonation and sulphidation is predicted. If, as seems reasonable, gold is mobilized by the fluid generated by devolatilization, then the combination of processes proposed, most of which are an inevitable consequence of the metamorphism, leads to the formation of greenstone gold deposits predominantly from metamorphic fluids.